Posted by Galen Verge

She most likely told them where to go before hand.

She's a mini MD

"She"? Who are you talking about?  

Posted by Elizabeth

Assuming that all 2500 players pressed the button to try and enter.
50 get in
2 winners

Probability for one person to win assuming two people win prizes:
P(A and B)=P(A)*P(B|A)
P(get in and win)=P(get in)*P(win)=(50/2500)(2/50)=1/1250=0.08% chance

Probability to have all four get in:
P(X)=(aCx*n-aCr-x)/nCr=(4C4*2496C46)/2500C50=undetermined, indicating that the probability for all 4 of the guild members to get into chance is virtually 0.

E(x)=ra/n=50*4/2500=0.08 is the expected number of people from the four in the guild to get into chance.

taking the extreme case of 2500 people looking for a warper:

the probability to win the prize assuming there are two winners is 8%, not 0.08%, although I assume thats a type

the probability of 4 specific people getting in an event is approximately 0.0000006%

the probability of the two people that won the event being out of those 4 is 0.64%

the probability of 4 specific people getting in an event and 2 of those winning is 0.0000000000384%

but who counts  

The real problem is that all the math in the world won't be able to prove if or if not Dianthus would have randomly decided to give the prize to one or two people, based on who they were

He says he'll start announcing how many players are going to "win" from here on, so we'll see  

Posted by wanderer

the probability to win the prize assuming there are two winners is 8%, not 0.08%, although I assume thats a type

Except (50/2500)(2/50)=1/1250=8*10^-4=0.0008=0.08% ?  

Posted by Elizabeth

Except (50/2500)(2/50)=1/1250=8*10^-4=0.0008=0.08% ?

Heavy.  

Posted by Elizabeth

Except (50/2500)(2/50)=1/1250=8*10^-4=0.0008=0.08% ?

the chance to win a prize a prize in an event when there are 2 winners and 50 participants is 2/50=0.08=8%
if you're already going at the chance to both get in an event and win it, is indeed 0.08%  

When u luckily found the warper and admin says "You can't get a hat because you already have it" *warps u out* *coughs* *even announces wrong person's name in winner announcement* *coughs* not gonna mention the admin's name  

Posted by Raeven

When u luckily found the warper and admin says "You can't get a hat because you already have it" *warps u out* *coughs* *even announces wrong person's name in winner announcement* *coughs* not gonna mention the admin's name

I legit won twice in a row what u mean announce the wrong name?  

Posted by Agonee

I legit won twice in a row what u mean announce the wrong name?

Lmao shut up xd

But fr tho he announced your name again the next round instead of mine . That was a big slap to my face.