rn if every remaining free agent resigns with their team, imo:
western conference:
1. warriors 2. rockets 3. spurs 4. lakers 5. clippers 6. pelicans 7. jazz 8. nuggets 9. thunder 10. trailblazers 11. timberwolves 12. mavericks 13. kings 14. suns 15. grizzlies
EVERY top 11 team has a chance to make the playoffs, huge dropoff at 12, really speaks to the strength of the western conference. also note that any team between 4 and 11 is nearly interchangeable.
biggest potential movers: spurs will fall far if kawhi leonard is traded, clippers will fall far if they can’t resign avery bradley/montrezl harrell (marcin gortat was a good pickup to replace deandre jordan imo), pelicans will fall far if they can’t resign rajon rondo/demarcus cousins, jazz will barely drop without derrick favors. kings can move up from 13 to 12 if they use all of their cap space to sign a decent player. lakers will definitely be a playoff team with lebron james, if all-time most overrated player kobe bryant carried trash to the playoffs, the GOAT should easily be able to do it, but they won’t last long in the western conference playoffs.
eastern conference:
1. celtics 2. 76ers 3. raptors 4. pacers 5. bucks 6. wizards 7. cavaliers 8. pistons 9. heat 10. hornets 11. knicks 12. hawks 13. nets 14. bulls 15. magic
celtics will easily grab the 1 seed and a finals appearance, will be a dynasty for a long time. cavaliers will still make the playoffs, the narrative that lebron “had no help” was simply not true and only to distract from the fact that he was struggling against an improved eastern conference. george hill/rodney hood/kyle korver/kevin love/tristan thompson are still great players, just hard to see that in an offense where they are barely moving because tyronn lue is having lebron play disgusting iso ball on every possession. i believe the top 8 playoff positions are locked down, massive dropoff after the pistons, who aren’t that great themselves. magic are doomed to stay at 15 no matter what happens, nets did a good job somehow improving with no draft choices, bulls suck at drafting, hawks success dependent on supremely overrated player trae young. only possible movement is bucks trading places with wizards without jabari, though there is a massive gap in talent between these two teams.
edit: top 8 combined imo:
1. warriors 2. celtics 3. rockets 4. 76ers 5. raptors 6. spurs 7. pacers 8. lakers