Despite the polls tightening currently, I still feel like its pretty unlikely trump will win. There's 10 swing states (states where no candidate has a > 5% lead), he has a narrow lead in 6 of them: North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, and Nevada. Clinton has narrow leads in ******ia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. If he gets all his states he's still 5 short, at 265 electoral votes. Which means that trump needs to win all of the states he has slight leads in, AND win one of the states Clinton has a slight lead in to win. That's 7/10 swing states. All Clinton has to do is either take one of his states, particularly north carolina or florida trump is only winning by .7%, or just win her own states. That's 4/10. 2/10 if she gets florida. Hell she could also stand to loose New Mexico. I'd say Clinton still has a very high chance of winning because of this. I'd put it at about 70% clinton, 30% trump.



If clinton gets florida