Here's what I know:
Bag icon:
- Gralats (random amount)
Party Hat icon:
- 5 fireworks (most common)
- 5 confetti poppers (most common)
- Balloon hats (I've seen 4 different ones: Blue Dog, Grey Elephant, Red Crab, Turtle)
- Noisemaker
- Bubble Blower
- Cake bomb (I'm assuming it's in this category)
Ticket icon:
- Prize Ticket for draw
"!" Icon:
- Pug mount
- Free month VIP
- Gralats (larger amount)
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Also, there's no correlation between AP and what you get on the wheel. I've been at 100 AP since the event started and I've gotten 3 "non-super-common" things so far (2 balloon hats and a Pug), and I have 2k+ hours and got like 6 extra spins in during the first day in which the wheels were glitched.
FYI I want the noisemaker or bubble blower a lot too, but if I don't get them, I can accept it. Every time there's a randomness to the stuff we can get, some people whine. When you should just be enjoying this awesome event and all the cool stuff going on.
Also, if the yin/yang bouncy ball and noob bombs were on the wheel instead of being sold, I bet a bunch of people would be complaining about not getting those and wishing they could be sold.