Unrelated to the current topic within the thread, but I found this interesting article:
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/polit...lection/58414/
It is not bias, since it discusses data only. If all states that are Democractic stay Democratic, and if all states that are Republican stay Republican, Obama has an 84.2% chance of winning, while Romney has a 14.8% chance (1.0% tie).